Market Commentary

Updated on December 30, 2024 10:09:39 AM EST

There is nothing of importance scheduled for today. We are likely seeing a flight-to-safety move in bonds as investors shift funds from stocks to escape the year-end sell-off. This is helping to boost bond prices, lowering yields and mortgage rates. While it is good news for mortgage rates in the short-term, it isn’t truly substantive or something we can rely on for long-term direction of rates. As soon as the stock selling ends, we could see some of those funds shift back away from bonds, reversing some or all of today’s improvements.

Tomorrow also lacks any relevant economic data that is expected to have an impact on mortgage pricing. We do have an early close in the bond market (2:00 PM ET) ahead of the New Year’s Day holiday, but stocks will trade a full session. All markets will be closed tomorrow and will reopen for regular trading hours Thursday.

Overall, we are likely to see the most movement in rates Friday morning due to the importance of the ISM manufacturing index. The fact we are seeing volatility in the markets as the year comes to a close is not surprising at all. However, it would be a surprise to see a big move in rates, at least before Friday’s data is released. It still would be prudent to keep an eye on the markets if still floating an interest rate and closing in the near future though.